10 College Football Thoughts: Texas Gets a Lifeline, Big 12 Contenders Stumble in Week 8

What a difference a year makes.

The state of Texas placed two teams into the College Football Playoff in each of the last two seasons. At least one team has made it every year since 2022. Last year, six programs from the Lone Star State finished the season in the AP Top 25. The previous record for teams from one state was three.

But Week 8 served as a bucket of cold water. Texas might get shut out of the playoff for the first time since it expanded to 12. The Longhorns stayed in the mix with a cathartic win over Ole Miss and SMU stayed on course with a victory over Cal, but all four Big 12 teams in Texas lost, including Texas Tech and Houston.

Here are my 10 thoughts from another unpredictable week of college football.

Texas Manning’d Up

The deep sigh of relief by Arch Manning that was captured by the ABC broadcast as the last-ditch effort by Ole Miss hit the ground said it all. The walls were closing in on Arch Manning and the Longhorns.

Prominent people in the industry were openly discussing a potential transfer. ESPN was reporting that K.J. Lacey was getting first team snaps. Steve Sarkisian admitted to tough conversations with his quarterback. Texas had lost two straight and nothing was off the table, including sending Manning to bed early if things didn’t turn around against the Rebels.

And it wasn’t just Arch with his back against the wall. The mob was forming online for Sarkisian, as well, only six weeks removed from beating Ohio State at home. Life can be cruel and fickle, though admittedly lucrative, for a head ball coach at a blueblood.

Texas had lost two straight and were at risk of getting knocked out of the CFP race by the end of October with one of the sport’s most expensive rosters. Heads were rolling if the losing streak extended to three games. That’s just how it works.

But those conversations were put on the back burner after the Horns outlasted Ole Miss and salvaged the season, at least for now. Manning wasn’t perfect, but he was gritty. Edgy, some would say. He threw for 212 yards and a touchdown, adding two more scores on the ground. The Longhorns averaged six yards a carry as a team when sack adjusted.

Texas is back…in the CFP race. The road to that destination is still filled with potholes, however. Trips to Missouri and LSU await at the start of November, most notably. Those are tomorrow’s problems, however. For tonight, Manning and Sark quieted the noise and won another game against a top 10 opponent when they needed it the most. That’s not nothing.

Unlucky No. 7 for the Red Raiders

Texas Tech was 6-0 and cruising towards the Big 12 Championship game last year when Arizona State knocked them off in Week 8. This year, it was Cincinnati that beat the 6-0 Red Raiders in Week 8. Maybe Joey McGuire’s group can petition the league to be idle next year during Week 8. A mea culpa for the tortilla ban, perhaps.

But while the losses happened in the same week and with the same record, that is where the similarities stop. The Arizona State game was easily explained. Behren Morton was hurt and the Sun Devils were the defending Big 12 champion. Losses like that happen. The loss to Cincinnati felt different. This defeat feels more like a referendum than a fluke.

Simply put, Texas Tech isn’t the class of the Big 12. Even in defeat last year, the Red Raiders always felt like the best team in the conference. Even in wins this year, that never felt true.

Remove the fast start against Arizona State a week ago and the first half performances tell a story of a team that doesn’t have that type of ceiling. Tech has been outscored 69-58 in five games against the FBS if we take away the 43-10 effort against the Sun Devils. They’ve trailed at halftime in three of the four conference games this year.

Dykes’ seat reaches boiling point  

Any goodwill that Sonny Dykes and his staff built in Fort Worth with a win over the rival Baylor Bears last week disappeared on Saturday afternoon when the Horned Frogs lost at home to West Virginia. TCU outgained the Mountaineers 484-272, but three turnovers and a run game that only averaged 3.2 yards a carry undermined a strong effort from QB Jaden Craig, who accounted for 398 yards of total offense.

The loss puts a spotlight on the Dykes tenure as the lackluster crowd at The Carter spent more time booing than cheering. He’s now 21-19 against the Power Four with a 15-16 mark versus the Big 12 since the start of 2023. Seven of those losses have come as favorites, including three of the four defeats this season. Four of those losses have come as double-digit favorites, including the one against the Mountaineers on Saturday.

TCU would need to win three of the last five games to reach a bowl for the third straight year. That would most likely require the Frogs to win their next three considering they close with Utah and a trip to Texas Tech. But if Dykes is there to finish the season remains a major question mark. His contract isn’t public because TCU is a private school, but sources say it is a manageable amount after it was restructured this offseason.

The Aranda Mirage

What a difference three weeks can make.

Baylor was the darling of the Big 12 through the first month of the season. The Bears started 5-1 and blew out Arizona State heading into the open date, leading into winnable games against TCU and Kansas. Dave Aranda entered the season on a scorching hot seat. The visions of a Big 12 title game march cooled that seat considerably and some started talking themselves into Aranda returning for 2027. After all, can you fire a coach that won eight or more games?

But those visions turned out to be a mirage. The Aranda tenure is over; it is just a matter of when it is announced. The loss to Kansas was the second straight defeat as a favorite following the TCU debacle at home the week before. The fan base has mostly checked out and the new athletic director Doug McNamee has had plenty of time to take stock in the downward trajectory.

What makes this interesting is that TCU might also come open this cycle and the two rivals will likely swim in the same candidate pool. Is there any advantage in being the first into the market? That’s up to the brass at TCU and Baylor to figure out. So far, only Maryland has opened.

The Longo and short of it

There is an art to being a successful head coach that Phil Longo simply hasn’t mastered. There are games that Sam Houston loses because of resources and/or roster talent – think Liberty – but the Wednesday night loss at home to New Mexico State was not one of those contests. That loss was about game management, and it falls at the feet of Longo, who is the head coach and the play caller.

Sam Houston held a 10-7 lead and had the ball with on its own 36-yard line with 1:06 left in the first half. In theory, the worst-case scenario for the Bearkats would be to force the Aggies to use all their timeouts and to get the ball back without enough time to drive the length of the field to score. Leading at halftime would’ve been a great confidence boost for a Bearkats squad in need of some good vibes.

Instead, Sam Houston called three straight pass plays – two of which were incomplete – and only drained 24 seconds off the clock before punting it back to New Mexico State, which promptly scored a touchdown on a two-play, 43-yard drive that took 18 seconds. Sam Houston never led again.

To make matters worse, Longo wasted a few timeouts early in the second half and didn’t have any way to stop the clock late to help Sam Houston complete a valiant comeback attempt. Oh, and his offense played three different quarterbacks and only rushed for 11 yards in the game.

Frustration in the fan base and in the locker room is on full display on social media. Longo is now 2-17 against the FBS since becoming the head coach. Those two wins were last year against Oregon State and Delaware. Against the Beavers, Sam Houston needed two special team’s touchdowns to win by four. Against Delaware, Sam Houston capitalized on three third quarter turnovers to win by three.

I still believe there are obstacles in the way that will keep Sam Houston from making a change even if that’s what is wanted behind the scenes, namely money and uncertainty at athletic director. But it is hard to watch Sam Houston for 60 minutes and not understand why so many fans crave one.

Kevin Jennings stands alone

Move over Don Meredith and Lance McIlhenny, Kevin Jennings is the best quarterback in SMU history. Jennings set the program record for touchdown passes (74) after tossing for three of them in the blowout win over Cal. He already holds the school record for total offense (10,451), passing yards (9,771) and completions (781).

SMU remains a hard team to figure out in 2026. Rhett Lashlee’s group is now 6-1 on the season and 4-1 in conference play with Syracuse and Virginia Tech upcoming. If they win those games, they’ll host Wake Forest on Nov. 14 in what might decide who plays Miami for the ACC championship. SMU is 11-0 at home in ACC games.

Yet, they don’t feel like a CFP contender despite the Top 25 ranking. SMU tends to play with its food. The wins over Florida State, Missouri State, Boston College, and Virginia were closer than they should’ve been. Cal led 20-17 at halftime on Saturday. Too many penalties and poor special teams play is hard to overlook.

But Jennings gives them a chance. SMU outscored Cal, 42-0, in the second half. The Mustangs gained 306 yards and allowed only 50 over the last two quarters. They accounted for 20 first downs while allowing only two. He’s a gamer, and always has been, dating back to his state championship winning ways at South Oak Cliff.

Jennings doesn’t get the credit he deserves. Lashlee is right about that. But history will remember KJ as the King of Dallas. He won Dallas ISD’s first state championship in two generations and has led his hometown team to the CFP. And he’s not done writing his story.

Houston drops another close one

Schedule luck bit Houston in 2026. The Cougars lost by eight points at Utah, their second road loss to a top 10 team this year by one possession. If one or two of those games are at home, maybe they’re a top 10 team and still in the Big 12 mix. Instead, it’ s tough climb to Arlington with two conference losses. A 10-win season is still possible, though.

Houston was 6-1 in one possession games last year. They’re now 1-2 in those games this season. In both losses, the offense stalled. The unit has averaged 41.5 points per game in six wins but only 19.5 in the two losses. Conner Weigman looked hobbled and the run game only averaged 2.8 yards a carry.

Is North Texas the best team in the American?

That’s not a question I thought I’d ask after Week 8 of the season. Neal Brown has proven to be a winner at the G6 level back in his time at Troy, but even the most earnest Mean Green fan expected a true step back in 2026 considering Eric Morris and the whole Mean Green roster seemingly moved to Stillwater after last season.

Yet, there are only two unbeaten teams in the American Conference right now and one of those is North Texas. Brown brought in 72 new players and most of them have hit, including star running back Jaheim White, who ran for 174 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

The American Conference is wide open and claiming any team to be the outright favorite right now would be foolish. There are three to five teams that could legitimately win the league. But you’re in denial if North Texas isn’t on that list. The Mean Green’s offense gives them a chance against anyone and three of their last five are at home.

The Nov. 14 matchup against UTSA could be one of the biggest tilts in an incredible rivalry if both teams keep winning. The Roadrunners are the other unbeaten American Conference team after throttling Tulane on the road. After two years of road struggles, Jeff Traylor’s team is now 3-0 on the road against the G6 this season.

The American is as wide open as the SEC. I could make an argument for five teams as potential champions.

Texas State wins off script

The Bobcats have mostly won with offense since G.J. Kinne arrived in San Marcos. The offense has ranked 11^th, 7^th, and 12^th nationally in scoring offense since the start of the 2023 season.

During that time, the Bobcats have struggled on defense and special teams, and that kept them from competing for conference championships in the Sun Belt. Kinne’s offense raised the floor at Texas State. The inconsistency on defense and special teams kept them from hitting the ceiling.

But we saw a different version of Texas State in the 20-17 win over Utah State. Brad Jackson and the offense sputtered early, gaining eight total yards and picking up one first down on their first four drives.

It was the special teams that accounted for the lone touchdown of the first half, a 100-yard kickoff return by Jaylen Jenkins. The defense held Utah State to three field goals while the offense found its legs. The unit forced two three-and-outs to start the second half.

Texas State was cruising towards its first losing season under Kinne following the collapse against San Diego State to start Pac-12 play dropped the record to 2-3. The two-game winning streak came at the perfect time because next up are road trips to Boise State and Oregon State – arguably the best two G6 teams – in consecutive weeks.

Gael Ochoa’s flowers

Rice’s offense is built around the quarterback run game and that put a lot of pressure on Gael Ochoa in his first start for the Owls. The normal starter – Jacurri Brown – was out with an injury and that was a big loss because he was the fourth leading rusher in the FBS at the quarterback position with 95.57 yards per game.

Ochoa not only replaced that production, he exceeded it in a breakout performance. The redshirt sophomore from El Paso Pebble Hills ran for 259 yards and four touchdowns on 12 carries. That is a staggering 21.6 yards per run. All four of his touchdown runs were over 50 yards. He also threw for 80 yards and a touchdown. The team ran for 499 yards in the loss, the most for Rice this season.

Ochoa, who transferred to Rice from UNLV in the offseason, looked like the future at QB for the Owls. With Brown a senior, Ochoa’s time is coming. And depending on Brown’s injury, his time might already be here.