Texas College Football: Longhorns Rise, Red Raiders Rally and Coaching Questions Loom Across the State

The regular season is now 75 percent finished for all 13 FBS teams in Texas and opinions about those programs are starting to crystalize into facts as we get more data each week.

The Longhorns won their fourth game against a Top 20 team this season, providing them with some wiggle room heading into a trip to LSU. Texas Tech survived an old-school Big 12 shootout late at night in Lubbock. G6 contenders Texas State and North Texas rolled to wins and stayed in their respective conference races.

And on the other side of the ledger, TCU and UTEP are facing difficult decisions about their head coaches heading into the final three games of the year.

With the dust settled from Week 10, let’s look at what stood out across Texas at the FBS level.

Longhorns earn wiggle room

The No. 7 next to Texas’ logo in the first edition of the College Football Playoffs shocked some. After all, the Longhorns lost as favorites against an Oklahoma team that might not make a bowl game and at home to a Florida squad that didn’t beat anyone other than Texas in the month of October.  

But if the committee cares more about elite wins than bad losses (they do), Texas earned that ranking. And it proved that its ceiling is as high as anyone in the country with a road win over Missouri. It was the fourth time this year that Steve Sarkisian’s team beat a Top 20 team, and it was the second time to do so away from Austin.

Texas is now 7-2 on the season with a road trip to LSU next. Because of the strength of schedule and those four quality wins, the Longhorns can likely get into the CFP at 9-3. That means they only need to win two out of the next three against LSU, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.

Tommy Boy

Mike Leach would be proud. Texas Tech and West Virgina combined for 101 points and 1,220 yards late Saturday night in Lubbock in a game that felt like a 2000s Big 12 tilt. The Red Raiders scored 41 first half points, including 27 in the second quarter, but it was the Mountaineers that led heading into the fourth quarter after outscoring Tech 21-0 in the third frame.

With Texas Tech’s season hanging in the balance, transfer quarterback Tommy Castellanos threw for a career-high five touchdowns in a thrilling win over West Virginia. He didn’t arrive in Lubbock until Aug. 29 and wasn’t supposed to be a potential savior. He was supposed to be quality depth that gave Tech something different in the red zone.

But with Will Hammond struggling and the Red Raiders teetering on the brink, Joey McGuire made the biggest decision of his Tech tenure and handed the keys to Castellanos, who has now led the Red Raiders to pivotal wins over Arizona and West Virginia in back-to-back weeks. He’s rushed for over 100 yards in each of those games, which has unlocked J’Koby Williams. Williams has 335 yards on only 33 carries since Castellanos became the starter.

Tech sits alone in second place in the Big 12 heading into the final three games and Castellanos has provided the Tech offense with an identity. The Red Raiders had only rushed for over 200 yards in two of the first seven games and they hadn’t ran for over 260 yards as a team in any of those contests. In two starts under Castellanos, they’ve ran for 328 and 276 yards, respectively.  

Sun setting on Dykes?

The loss at Arizona was the perfect encapsulation of the Sonny Dykes tenure over the past few years. No team in Texas, maybe even the country outside of Nebraska, is as good at snatching losses away from the jaws of victory better than the Horned Frogs.  And it is why so many fans want a change.

The Horned Frogs were on the cusp of a Top 25 win on the road against Arizona, leading 28-20 with two minutes left in the game. Arizona scored a touchdown to cut the lead to 28-26 with 1:43 left, but a failed two-point conversion meant that all the Frogs had to do was recover the onside kick.

Instead, the Wildcats recovered the pooch kick and nailed a 37-yard field goal with 38 seconds left in the game. TCU QB Jaden Craig threw a game ending interception on the next drive. The Horned Frogs also missed a pair of field goals in the one-point loss.

TCU is now 4-5 on the season and 2-4 in the Big 12 with Utah and Texas Tech still on the schedule. All five losses this year were by one possession and the four Big 12 losses were by a combined 20 points. They’re losing in the margins and when that happens consistently, it is on the coaches. Poor quarterback play doesn’t help, sure, but Craig was brought in by, you guessed it, the coaches.

I wrote last week that I’d be surprised if Dykes made it past the weekend. He did, and I was. But a change feels inevitable. It is now a matter of when the TCU brass wants to jump back into the market.

There doesn’t seem to be much reason to kick the can further down the road, especially with what most will assuredly be low attended home games the next two weeks with “Fire Dykes” chants and paper bags on students’ heads causing more headlines than the game results.

Home Sweet Hilltop

SMU has now won 18 straight conference home games dating back to October of 2022 after thumping Virginia Tech on Friday night in Ford Stadium. The Mustangs are 12-0 at home in conference games since joining the ACC in 2024. They’re 7-5 against conference ACC opponents away from Dallas.

Quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 350 yards and four touchdowns in the win. In 19 home games since the start of 2024, Jennings has thrown for 50 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions. He’s thrown for 24 touchdowns to 18 interceptions in 17 road games.

The frustrating part of the SMU season leading into Week 10 was that a dominant team felt like it was lurking in the shadows. The Mustangs were clearly the better team in all but one of their first nine games, but shaky wins and a couple of disappointing performances, including the recent trip to Syracuse, left onlookers to question if we’d get to see that potential realized in 2026.

The Friday night beat down of Virginia Tech was confirmation that a real ACC contender exists at SMU. The Ponies get a chance to turn an uneven season into a smashing success with upcoming showcase games against Wake Forest next week at home and Notre Dame in South Bend on Nov. 21.           

North Texas is a true G6 success story  

North Texas has scored at least 45 points in each game of its current six-game winning streak. The 52-23 victory over Rice coupled with UTSA’s Thursday night loss against FAU moves the Mean Green into sole possession of first place in the American Conference ahead of the two rivals squaring off next week in San Antonio.

There aren’t many better stories in college football than the one unfolding in Denton, America. North Texas was a sad story in a bleak reality of G6 football. A program that built a conference contending team with a young coach and a young roster that would’ve swung above its weight for a few seasons 10 years ago. Instead, Eric Morris and most of his best players used the success at North Texas to cash in in the Big 12.

But instead of going quietly into the night, Neal Brown arrived, along with 72 new places, and has the North Texas right back on the doorstep of another trip to the conference championship game. The offense is electric. Drew Mestemaker and the North Texas offense averaged 45.1 points per game last season. The current offense is averaging 44.6.  

Table still set for Roadrunners

The only thing lost for UTSA in the 31-point road defeat to FAU on Thursday night was any chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. The Roadrunners entered Week 10 as the third most likely team to receive the G6 auto bid behind Boise State and New Mexico. A real case could’ve been made if they ran the table, winning the deepest G6 conference with the only loss coming on the road against Texas.

Losing stinks, especially out of an open date, but the real concern for the Roadrunners was how they lost to FAU. The Owls dominated them in the trenches, and that’s not the calling card of Zach Kittley’s team this year. They gained 339 yards on 6.9 yards a carry offensively. Defensively, FAU recorded 11 tackles for loss, including six sacks. Will Henderson III and Brandon High Jr. combined for 38 yards on 15 carries.

But everything else is still on the table for Jeff Traylor’s bunch. Any sane Roadrunner fan would’ve taken a 7-2 mark overall with a 4-1 record in conference play ahead of season. UTSA controls its own destiny to the championship game because of the upcoming matchup with North Texas. Beat the Mean Green at home next weekend and only thing standing in the way of UTSA and its first trip to the American Conference Championship game is a trip to UAB and a home game against Tulsa.

Bear Up  

Baylor is somehow still in the Big 12 championship picture despite a mid-season coaching change. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman is now 2-0 as the interim head coach following the 42-31 win over Iowa State. It was the second straight week that the Bears offense topped the 40-point mark.

If Baylor wins out and Oklahoma State and Arizona both lose at least one more game, the Bears reach Arlington. Arizona hosts Utah next week. Oklahoma State hosts Texas Tech. Even if both fall as underdogs, the winning out part might be the hardest piece of the equation because the Bears close with a home game against Texas Tech sandwiched between trips to BYU and Houston.

Qualifying for a bowl game doesn’t mean what it used to for most programs – even Baylor turned down the opportunity last year at 5-7 – but this group of Bears deserved something good after a season of disappointment. This program needed some good mojo heading into an important hiring cycle and the postgame celebrations after the last two wins would make even the most jaded fan smile.

Aggies, Elko face important offseason

The 17-9 loss at South Carolina over the weekend was a game that even mothers couldn’t love. The Gamecocks were ripe for the picking and the Aggies weren’t talented enough, or well coached enough, to go steal a road win. Close your eyes and try to picture five current Texas A&M players that would scare you as an opposing coordinator. You can’t. That’s the problem.  

Mike Elko is clearly a smart guy and a qualified head coach. He graduated from Penn, won at Duke, and led Texas A&M to the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history in his second year in charge. And that’s what makes the decisions he made in the offseason even more baffling.

On paper, it is easy to understand his thinking. Why rock the boat after an 11-0 start and arguably the best season in modern program history? Elko bet on Marcel Reed’s progression, in-house promotions to coordinator, and on a mix of transfer additions and returning players heading into 2026. Those bets clearly went bust.

The 2026 is effectively over and a bowl game seems unlikely given that the 4-5 Aggies will likely be underdogs in each of their final three games. Elko heads into the most important offseason of his career under a maroon-colored magnifying glass. He’ll need to shake up his coaching staff and they must improve the roster before the start of the 2027 season.

Houston takes care of business

They say a team takes on the personality of its coach and the Houston Cougars might be the best example. They’re not the flashiest team. They don’t always look great or polished. They don’t always pass the eye test. But just like head coach Willie Fritz has done his whole career, they find ways to win. The 31-24 triumph over Cincinnati was only the latest example.

Houston jumped out to a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter and it looked like it’d be an easy day at the office coming out of the open date. Instead, the Bearkats rallied and the second half became a back-and-forth affair. But Houston weathered the storm and put the game to bed when Re’Shaun Sanford raced 51 yards for a touchdown with 5:10 left. The Cougars sealed the win on a fumble recovery on the ensuing drive.

The Coogs remain in the Big 12 hunt and are three wins away from winning 10 games in back-to-back seasons. Fritz wanted a chance to prove he could work his magic in the Power Four and he’s done just that, elevating Houston to the best-of-the-rest status behind Utah and Texas Tech.

Texas State makes a statement

Anyone that buried Texas State for dead following the collapse at San Diego State hadn’t watched G.J. Kinne’s tenure with the Bobcats closely enough. They won four out of their last five in 2024 and went 4-0 down the stretch last year to salvage a bowl trip. The script under Kinne through three years is to start strong, hit a lull in October, and then finish with a bang.

Texas State appears to be following a similar script in Year 1 of the Pac-12. The Bobcats rallied against Boise State a week ago and came within one point of knocking off the presumptive G6 CFP team on the road. Kinne’s crew was 0-2 on the West Coast this season and had to get back on a plane to play at Oregon State in Week 10, only seven days after a trip to Boise State.

But instead of collapsing under the mileage, Texas State played one if its most complete games of the Kinne tenure. The Bobcats ran for 386 yards in the 21-point win over the Beavers, which is the fourth time in nine games that they’ve rushed for more than 330 yards.  And they suddenly look like the second best team in the Pac-12 behind Boise State.