Texas Tech Game Preview Presented by Visit Lubbock: Arizona

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On the surface, Texas Tech vs Arizona is a ranked big 12 matchup of two incredibly even conference heavyweights meeting in Lubbock on Halloween. Both teams are 6-1 with each team dropping a conference game. Both teams score right at 36 points per game and both teams give up around 20 points per game give or take a couple. 

If you dig into the matchup even the slightest bit, it’s hard to see why Arizona shouldn’t win by a possession or more. The 2nd ranked Big 12 passing offense vs the 14th ranked passing defense, the 2nd most offensive efficiency rating vs the 11th most efficient offense in the Big 12, 3rd best 3rd down conversion percentage vs the 11th best. All those numbers lean toward the Wildcats. 

On paper, the game would be a true pick ‘em on a neutral site with the Red Raiders favored by 3.5 thanks to the unfriendly confines of Galaxy stadium. I think all Red Raiders hope that ‘the game isn’t played on paper’ rule of thumb holds true on Saturday morning. 

Noah Fifita has the ability to do everything that Conner Weigman and JC French did to the Red Raiders defense. Fifita isn’t a runner per se, and has taken 17 sacks, but he’s athletic enough to get out of a rush and get a first down or hit a free runner down the field. He’s the returning All-Big 12 First Team quarterback and is starting his 48th collegiate game this weekend.

On the other side at quarterback, Will Hammond is starting his 11th career game and seems to have lost a bit of confidence in his ability. A gun shy gunslinger isn’t nearly as effective as a man with a quick draw. 

For Texas Tech to beat Arizona and get back in control of their path toward a Big 12 Championship, Will Hammond must grip it and rip it. Both Joey McGuire and Offensive Coordinator Mack Leftwich talked in their weekly press conference about ‘simplifying’ the offense for the young quarterback. 

If that’s the case, I expect Hammond to be able to excel in the quick game with RPOs and screens. I think simplifying the offense could also benefit Leftwich’s perception as well. Both the head coach and Leftwich took some shots on social media this week, with quite the spectrum of voices criticizing their performance in Cincinnati. 

While Cody Campbell has since backed Joey McGuire, saying there is nothing to worry about in regards to his job security. No such guarantee has been made for the offensive coordinator. 

The Red Raiders have gotten into the red zone 29 times this season, with only 15 touchdowns to show for their efforts. In Big 12 play, they’ve got seven touchdowns in 17 trips. I’m not a math guy but that’s a touchdown percentage of less than 50%. 

That has to be better. 

Adding Cameron Dickey back into the formula will certainly help, but it’s past time to see the return of Thomas Castellanos in the red zone. The difference in red zone success with Castellanos in the game and Hammond in the game has been stark. Yes, Hammond has a much bigger sample size, but the numbers don’t look good for Hammond.

I also would not be surprised to see Castellanos enter the game outside the red zone, whether Hammond is struggling or not. 

Beyond all the numbers, the quarterback advantage and overall vibes leaning the Wildcats way, Texas Tech still has some things going for them. They can still take the ball away, they have an explosive threat in J’Koby Williams and they have home field advantage. 

I really want to take the Red Raiders to win this game. Joey McGuire is 11-5 after a loss since 2022 and 26-5 in Lubbock. Since 2024, they are 4-1 after a loss. This isn’t the 2025 Red Raiders and Arizona isn’t 2025 Oklahoma State, but the last regular season loss was followed by a 42-0 win over the Cowboys. 

Even at 11:00 am on Halloween, the stadium should be rockin’. Forget the opponent, Texas Tech needs to respond for Texas Tech. The team needs a win like they can get on Arizona. All of their goals are still out in front of them. The Big 12 Championship and the CFP are still attainable, but the Red Raiders simply cannot walk out on Saturday and be more trick than treat to the Texas Tech faithful in attendance. 

With that in mind, I’ll take the Red Raiders 27-24 with a massive bounceback in a gigantic spot. 

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Traveling in for the game? Visit Lubbock has you covered for Things to Do, Can’t Miss Experiences and Where to Stay