Texas Tech Game Preview Presented by Visit Lubbock: Arizona State

Texas Tech and Arizona State aren’t a real rivalry game… yet. Before we dive into that let’s just look at the game in a vacuum. 

The Red Raiders are 5-0 and 2-0 in Big 12 play. They aren’t covering the spread in dominant fashion like 2026, but they are finishing games in the only way that matters. By winning. They pulled away from Colorado in the second half because the talent discrepancy showed in a major way. The Texas Tech defense isn’t the same, but it’s still a top three unit in the conference and is still elite by Texas Tech standards since the year 2000. 

Arizona State is 3-2, with losses to both P4 teams they’ve played in the United States and undefeated against Kansas in London. In that Kansas game the Sun Devils looked to be in total control before allowing Kansas to fight back into the game in the second half. Against Texas A&M, Arizona State played a great first half before ultimately getting blown out by 28. Before beating Hawaii by 18, they were beaten by Baylor 55-19. Even that game was 24-13 at halftime before Baylor won the second half 31-6. 

Every fiber of my being is saying that Arizona State will come to the great city of Lubbock and put up a tough first half before the depth and overall talent overcomes the Sun Devils at some point in the second half. 

Texas Tech, like the Aggies, are favored by two touchdowns. The conventional wisdom says that the Red Raiders should put QB Cutter Boley in enough bad situations that he can’t handle. On paper, Texas Tech is absolutely the better team. Both offenses have struggles, but the Red Raiders struggles don’t look like a talent issue. Not to say that Arizona State is devoid of talent. Both Omarion Miller and Reed Harris are legit threats. Cardae Mack, a freshman, had nine carries through the first four games before a breakout performance against Hawaii where he had 13 carries for 154 yards. 

Still, the matchup dictates that Texas Tech wins by 14 and the season results say that Texas Tech finishes strong and Arizona State fizzles late in games. 

All of that being said, I think that this is the type of conference game where you can throw out the rest of the season and just know that both locker rooms will be ready to play because of who is on the other sideline. Joey McGuire and Kenny Dillingham obviously have an immense amount of respect for each other. The loser of this game has been the Big 12 champion the past two seasons. It’s a former border conference game, though the two teams don’t bring much of a rivalry into this century from their first run as conference mates. 

Still, as Big 12 rivals the Sun Devils felt like they let one get away in 2024 and went into 2025 on a mission to avenge that loss. Sam Levitt burned the rest of his season to play hurt against the Red Raiders and Jordyn Tyson gutted out an injured hamstring to make a play in the fourth quarter to win the game in 2025. In 2026, the Red Raiders enter the year with the Sun Devils circled on the calendar. 

Maybe that turns into a blowout like the A&M and Baylor games did for Arizona State. I think it’s more likely that Arizona State goes down swinging and their defense plays the best game of their season in Lubbock. 

Give me 27-13 and an old fashioned slugfest. I won’t be shocked with any margin of victory for the Red Raiders, but I would be stunned if Mack went full Ballage on the Red Raiders in an upset. 

Sorry for bringing that up.