Readers often inquire about how I determine my conference predictions in the summer magazine. It’s not a complicated or scientific formula. I start by separating teams into tiers from top to bottom. Some conferences are more top-heavy with as many as five or six teams capable of winning the title. Others have one or two teams with a significant talent advantage compared to the rest of the conference.
My next step is to understand that the home team wins nearly 60 percent of college football games, which means the road team must be significantly better to predict a victory. If two teams are in the same tier, the game is considered a toss-up, and the home team is awarded the win. Conference games are denoted by an asterisk next to the opponent's name.