Readers often inquire about how I determine my conference predictions in the summer magazine. It’s not a complicated or scientific formula. I start by separating teams into tiers from top to bottom. Some conferences are more top-heavy with as many as five or six teams capable of winning the title. Others have one or two teams with a significant talent advantage compared to the rest of the conference.
My next step is to understand that the home team wins nearly 60% of college football games, which means the road team must be significantly better to predict a victory. If two teams are in the same tier, the game is considered a toss-up, and the home team is awarded the win. Conference games are denoted by an asterisk next to the opponent's name.