Does 7-on-7 success predict Texas high school football championships?

The 2022 Texas State 7-on-7 Tournament kicks off Thursday in College Station, as 128 teams representing high schools from all corners of Texas descend upon Aggieland for three days of high-octane passing league action. As much fun as the tournament will be — which you can stream live on Texan Live — there's always a lingering question, especially from detractors: what, exactly, does it mean?

Of course, nobody would suggest that winning 7-on-7 is as meaningful or special as winning a state championship in the fall; they're totally separate accomplishments. But how meaningful is success in 7-on-7? Can passing league success portend a successful fall season?