How close are Texas' teams to capturing their own national title?

[caption id="attachment_36696" align="alignnone" width="770"] TCU shared a Big 12 title in 2014 and barely missed out on the playoff. It also went undefeated in 2010.[/caption] Monday night, Alabama finally ended its winding, frustrating, painful, two-year journey without a national title. The Crimson Tide's title gave the state six trophies since 2009, the last time a team from Texas played for a national championship. The state of Texas hasn't hoisted the national title trophy in 12 seasons and hasn't played for it in eight. How close are the state's teams to ending that drought? We're so glad you asked, and we spared you the indignity of reading a feature called The Contendex (Or did we?). Either way, some dreams in the Lone Star State are more in reach than others. On a scale of 1 (It's never going to happen) to 10 (Make sure you save space on the shelf for the trophy and get your finger measured for a ring), here's where the state's teams stand. 1. TCU (7.8): The Horned Frogs have been unquestionably the best program in Texas over the last recruiting cycle, winning 40 total games in four seasons and narrowly missing out on the playoff in 2014. The biggest obstacle to winning a title is its recruiting. The more it's studied, the more every program aiming high must confront a reality: Top 10 classes do not automatically beget big-time success, but you cannot win a national title without top 10 talent on your roster. And TCU's last four classes ranked 28th, 21st, 39th and 43rd. Its 2018 class is currently ranked 21st. Gary Patterson has shown he can win 9-10 games consistently with that level of talent, but he needs a lot more four and five stars to make a national title a reality. 2. Texas A&M (6.4): The Aggies have recruited like champions since Kevin Sumlin arrived in College Station, but 31 wins in four seasons is a long way from the playoff. Sumlin's replacement, Jimbo Fisher has a lot to work with and a national title on his resume already, but the Aggies aren't close to elite on either side of the ball. Last year, A&M ranked 75th in offensive yards per play and 68th in defensive yards per play. By contrast, Alabama was No. 1 on defense and No. 13 on offense. And the Aggies also have the difficulty of sharing a division with the best coach in college football history. (Yes, I will fight you on this.) 3. Texas (5.8): Like the Aggies, the Longhorns have something close to elite talent on paper, but seeing the roster in action makes you question every recruiting ranking in history. Texas was elite defensively in 2017, which is a nice start, but if you can't score 40 in any given week and have All-American-caliber play at quarterback, you can't win a Big 12 title. The Longhorns scored just over 25 points a game in Big 12 play--eighth in the league--and ranked ninth in the conference in passing efficiency, ahead of only Kansas. Plus, there's the small matter of winning 23 games in four seasons. Tom Herman still has the belief and support from his fan base, but a national title feels eons away, even if the talent on campus offers hope and lots of upside. 4. Texas Tech (3.6): The Red Raiders don't have the upside of the state's blue bloods and have one season with double digit wins since 1976. And even that feat took two Red Raiders finishing in the top five of Heisman voting. Defense is always an issue in Lubbock, but they'll have to seriously threaten a Big 12 title before we can talk about a national title. 5. Baylor (2.8): "Life comes at you fast" could be the program's official motto. Its consecutive Big 12 titles in 2013 and 2014 show the program's new potential, but those seasons feel like a generation ago. Maybe Matt Rhule can get the Bears near those heights again, but the building has officially been stripped to the foundation after 2017's 1-11 campaign. 6. Group of Five programs (1.7): Let's make this official: If you go 13-0 with a New Year's Six bowl win, we support any program going full UCF and printing as much "National Champions!" paraphenalia as the law allows. But as we've seen in the first four years of the playoff, the committee has shown nothing short of divine intervention will force them to give a Group of Five program a fair shot to crack the playoff. It's theoretically easier to qualify from The American than it would be from C-USA or the Sun Belt, but the playoff has made it harder than ever for teams from outside the major conferences to earn serious consideration for the playoff field.