TEPPER: A closer look at the toughest (and easiest) TXHSFB schedules

We’re now five weeks into the 2017 Texas high school football season, meaning that for the most part — with the exception of teams affected by Hurricane Harvey — we have a sizable enough sample to start making some overarching assertions. But we’re still at a point, especially with teams yet to enter district play, where overall records can be deceiving. Not all 5-0 teams are created equal; not all 1-4 teams, either. The biggest discrepancy: strength of schedule. Some teams must walk a much tougher path than others. So let’s take a more nuanced approach to our analysis with a look at strength of schedule. Using Jerry Forrest’s advanced analytics — Texas Football Insiders can view his computer rankings for every Texas high school football team and his projections for every Texas high school football game — we have a pretty accurate gauge on who’s played whom, and who is left on the schedule. These are reflective not only of the schedule each team has already played, but also who’s still to come. Class 6A Toughest Overall Schedule: Cibolo Steele (1-4) Winless Team With Toughest Schedule: Plano West (0-4) Easiest Overall Schedule: PSJA (4-0) Steele has already faced the two toughest teams in its rough-and-tumble District 27-6A in Converse Judson and Smithson Valley, not to mention Lake Travis in non-district play. Plano West has already run through John Tyler, Sachse, Hebron and McKinney (a combined 14-3 on the year), and Allen is up next. On the flip side, PSJA’s four opponents have won a combined two games on the season, and they’re about to enter a manageable District 31-6A. Class 5A Toughest Overall Schedule: Mansfield Timberview (2-3) Winless Team With Toughest Schedule: Lucas Lovejoy (0-5) Easiest Overall Schedule: Dallas Adamson (3-2) Undefeated Team With Easiest Schedule: Austin McCallum (5-0) Timberview’s already been through the gauntlet, losing to defending state champ Highland Park and high-flying Frisco Lone Star, and District 10-5A might be the deepest and toughest in the state. They won’t get any sympathy from Lovejoy, though — the Leopards’ opponents thus far are a combined 21-2 on the year, and Noth Forney, Mesquite Poteet and Wylie East still loom. Adamson has had it relatively cushy so far, as their three wins have come against winless teams, and District 12-5A shouldn’t challenge them too much outside of Dallas Wilson. Meanwhile, McCallum is living right — they’re already past arguably their toughest district game in LBJ after cruising through a non-conference slate with a combined record of 4-15. Class 4A Toughest Overall Schedule: Gladewater (1-4) Winless Team With Toughest Schedule: Big Spring (0-5) Easiest Overall Schedule: Dallas Roosevelt (2-3) Undefeated Team With Easiest Schedule: Clint (4-0) It’s not easy being Gladewater, as the Bears have already faced Carthage, Kilgore and Tyler Chapel Hill…and they haven’t even started District 7-4A DII play, which features Gilmer, Pleasant Grove, Pittsburg, Spring Hill and Atlanta. Big Spring has it no better — losses to two 5A squads and three elite 4As (Sweetwater, Monhaans and Andrews) all precede showdowns with Graham, Abilene Wylie, Stephenville and Brownwood. On the flip side, Dallas Roosevelt has two wins over winless teams, with three more teams that currently stand at 1-4 left on the docket. Clint is an odd case, as three of their five non-district games are against teams from New Mexico, making them a bit hard to judge. Class 3A Toughest Overall Schedule: Whitesboro (2-3) Winless Team With Toughest Schedule: Howe (0-5) Easiest Overall Schedule: Nocona (5-0) Whitesboro and Howe are product of a merciless District 5-3A DI, which features salty Pottsboro, Van Alstyne and Pilot Point squads. Of course, it doesn’t help that Howe scheduled both Gunter and Muenster in non-district, while Whitesboro took on a non-district slate with a combined record of 20-4. Nocona is cruising right now thanks to a mammoth offense, but take note: the Indians’ non-district schedule is a combined 4-21 on the season. Class 2A Toughest Overall Schedule: Shiner (3-1) Winless Team With Toughest Schedule: Shelbyville (0-4) Easiest Overall Schedule: Colmesneil (2-1) Undefeated Team With Easiest Schedule: Pettus (4-0) That Shiner is 3-1 is a huge credit to the Comanches, considering they’ve beaten Falls City and Wallis Brazos, but the road gets no easier, especially with a Week 11 trip to Refugio on the horizon. Shelbyville would be happy to have one of those wins, but it’s been tough sledding for the Dragons (playing four 3A teams in non-district) and won’t get much more generous (San Augustine, Price Carlisle, Joaquin and Alto in District 11-2A DI play). Colmesneil’s opponents are a combined 1-12 on the year — the one win was Mount Enterprise’s win over the Bulldogs. And it’s relatively smooth sailing for Pettus so far, taking on three uninspiring private school teams in non-district so far before heading into a workable District 15-2A DII (Falls City and maybe Flatonia nonwithstanding). Class 1A Toughest Overall Schedule: Sterling City (3-2) Winless Team With Toughest Schedule: Santa Anna (0-5) Easiest Overall Schedule: Lazbuddie (3-2) Undefeated Team With Easiest Schedule: Silverton (4-0) Nobody can accuse Sterling City coach Trey Sisco of shying away from a fight — his Eagles have already taken on state-ranked Valley and always tough Buena Vista, and they still have Richland Springs and Follett on the docket (not to mention Garden City in district play). For Santa Anna, district play (even with Veribest) will be a welcome respite, as they’ve already taken on May, Garden City and Zephyr, with tricky matchups with Evant and Blackwell still to come. Lazbuddie has taken — shall we say — a more manageable path, as only two of their opponents have a record above .500 (and, by the way, their two losses are by forfeit). Silverton will get its toughest test to date this week against unbeaten Lorenzo, a considerable step up from their previous opponents who have a combined record of 3-17. Some other notes from the strength of schedule study: -The toughest district in the state? District 27-6A, which features Converse Judson, Smithson Valley, Cibolo Steele and other Alamo City heavyweights. -Undefeated teams that have faced the toughest schedule? In 6A, Converse Judson; in 5A, Manvel; in 4A, Carthage; in 3A, Malakoff; in 2A, San Augustine; in 1A, Happy. -The private school teams that have faced the toughest schedule? In 11-man, it’s Fort Worth All Saints (who, mind you, are undefeated); in six-man, it’s Austin Veritas.