Best Case/Worst Case in 2017: SMU Mustangs

All of our Best Case/Worst Case scenarios:Texas / Texas A&M / Texas Tech / TCU / Baylor / Houston / UTSA / SMU / UTEP / Rice / North Texas / Texas State Will this season be a dream or a nightmare for your favorite FBS program in the state of Texas? In this series, we take a look at the best and worst case scenarios for all 12 teams. SMU 2016 record: 5-7Best Case The Mustangs took a significant step forward in year two under Chad Morris after winning just two games in 2015, and should be poised for a big year if things fall their way this season. Just how far SMU can go will likely depend on the play of the defense. The unit struggled last season while allowing more than 36 points per game, but the secondary finished ninth in the country with 18 interceptions. Key pieces like Jordan Wyatt, Kyran Mitchell and Rodney Clemons return from that group, so improving in run defense and finding consistency alongside Justin Lawler up front will be what pushes SMU towards a big year. Offensively, the Mustangs are set to make some significant noise. Quarterback Ben Hicks was thrown into the fire a year ahead of schedule as a redshirt freshman when Matt Davis went down with an injury in the season opener against North Texas last year. This was the year he was supposed to take the reigns of the offense, so how much will that experience from 2016 pay off? SMU certainly has the pieces in place to put up big numbers with Courtland Sutton (1,246 yards, 10 TDs) and James Proche (709 yards, 6 TDs) headlining the returners on the perimeter. The run game will be explosive as Xavier Jones returns from an injury that derailed a promising freshman season to join Braeden West (1,036 yards, 6 TDs) and Ke’Mon Freemon (651 yards, 4 TDs). If Hicks can protect the ball and cut down on turnovers, SMU will be tough to stop. In the best-case scenario, the defense shows dramatic improvement against the run to take some of the pressure off the offense. Ben Hicks cuts down on turnovers and exceeds expectations as a sophomore, helping Courtland Sutton win the Biletnikoff Award to achieve his goal of being the best receiver in college football this season. If things come together, SMU will be 2-0 after picking up its third straight win over rival North Texas. The Mustangs are at least a year away from being able to matchup well against TCU, but move to 4-1 with wins over Arkansas State and Connecticut. This is when things get interesting. SMU shocked the college football world a year ago with a 38-16 drubbing of Houston. The Mustangs are a better team this year, so another win isn’t out of the question. A win over Cincinnati on the road has the team flying high at 6-1 into a home against Tulsa, where the Mustangs sneak past an inexperienced Hurricanes’ squad. The AAC schedule is tough though, so even in a perfect world SMU would be lucky to split its final four games against UCF, Navy (road), Memphis (road) and Tulane. Regardless, SMU would be in a bowl game for the first time since 2012 with an impressive 9-3 finish to the regular season. Worst Case While emerging as one of the top teams in the AAC isn’t out of the question, it’s just as likely the Mustangs suffer through a year right around .500 if the defense struggles. In the worst-case scenario for 2017, the Mustangs fail to build on the excitement that Morris has managed to create around the program. Hicks again shows flashes of his potential at quarterback but fails to take a significant step forward as turnovers continue to be an issue. The defense struggles as SMU finishes 4-8 with a disappointing loss to North Texas along with a 2-5 record in the AAC headlining the year’s shortcomings. The Mustangs entered last year with essentially nowhere to go but up. But with the excitement and expectations growing, taking even a small step backwards would be the worst-case scenario for the Mustangs at this point as they look to turn the corner on Morris’ rebuilding project.

— –– —