Best Case/Worst Case in 2017: North Texas Mean Green

All of our Best Case/Worst Case scenarios:Texas / Texas A&M / Texas Tech / TCU / Baylor / Houston / UTSA / SMU / UTEP / Rice / North Texas / Texas State Will this season be a dream or a nightmare for your favorite FBS program in the state of Texas? In this series, we take a look at the best and worst case scenarios for all 12 teams. North Texas 2016 record: 5-8Best Case Seth Littrell’s first season in Denton went about as well as could be expected with the hand he was dealt after taking over a program that was at its lowest point in almost 10 years after a 1-11 season in 2015. The Mean Green struggled at times throughout the season and managed to catch a lot of breaks along the way, but Littrell led the team to an appearance in the Heart of Dallas Bowl and that was more than a lot of people expected in year one. Now the coaching staff has had a chance to put its on touch on the roster through a full recruiting cycle and returns a good core from last season. The opener against Lamar on Sept. 2 should help the team pick up a win and get into a rhythm going into what is one of the biggest games of the year in week two against SMU. A win over the Mustangs in Dallas would be big for North Texas on the recruiting trail and would put the team at 2-0 heading into a money game on the road against Iowa. The Mean Green haven’t defeated a Power Five program since a 24-21 home win over Indiana in 2011, so it is unlikely the team will come out on top in Iowa City. At that point, the team would be 2-1 heading into Conference USA action. An important stretch of games against UAB, Southern Miss (road), UTSA and Florida Atlantic (road) is up first, where, in a perfect world, the Mean Green should hope for wins of three of four games. The UTSA game is in Denton, which helps the cause in another big rivalry game that, like a win over SMU, would do wonders for recruiting. In this best-case scenario, North Texas is 5-2 heading into the final five games of the season. Old Dominion, which returns 15 starters from a 10-win squad, is a tough draw even at home and comes right before the Mean Green travel to take on Louisiana Tech – a favorite for the C-USA championship. It’s hard to see a win in either game, meaning North Texas would enter the last three games of the year – UTEP, Army and Rice – at 5-4 needing just one win to return to a bowl. All three are extremely winnable, and a clean sweep would put the Mean Green in a decent bowl game just two years into Littrell’s rebuild. Worst Case The Mean Green went bowling in year one thanks in part to a high APR score after finishing the regular season at 5-7. But if Jeffrey Wilson or Mason Fine were to go down with an injury, as both did last season, the depth chart is thin at both skill positions in the backfield. North Texas has a lot of unknown in the receiving corps and also has to replace two efficient linebackers in Fred Scott and Cortney Finney. Going without a win against both UTSA and SMU would hurt, and the Mean Green could struggle with the unknown UAB and Florida Atlantic bring to the table. If the team fails to win at least three of its first seven games, it will be in a tough spot while looking to return to a bowl game with games against ODU and LA Tech still ahead. After creating some excitement in Denton and increasing attendance last season, failing to qualify for a bowl game would be a painful blow for a staff looking to take the next step.