Best Case/Worst Case in 2017: Texas Tech Red Raiders

All of our Best Case/Worst Case scenarios:Texas / Texas A&M / Texas Tech / TCU / Baylor / Houston / UTSA / SMU / UTEP / Rice / North Texas / Texas StateWill this season be a dream or a nightmare for your favorite FBS program in the state of Texas? In this series, we take a look at the best and worst case scenarios for all 12 teams.Texas Tech 2016 record: 5-7Best Case With winning seasons in just two of his first four seasons in Lubbock, Kliff Kingsbury is under some pressure to show some improvement this season. It will be an uphill battle for the Red Raiders though, as the team has to move on from one of the most prolific quarterback’s in school history in Patrick Mahomes while also trying to fix what was statistically the worst defense in college football last year. Tech has taken advantage of a relatively light start to the season each of the last to years and jumped out to 3-1 start both times. The Red Raiders could again hope for a quick start, but would need to win two of three games against Arizona State, Houston (road) and Oklahoma State – which is no easy task. Tech has a tough schedule on the road in Big 12 play, where they face what is essentially a must win against Kansas before traveling to West Virginia, Oklahoma and Texas. In a perfect world the team would snag two road wins in conference play, putting them within reach of a bowl game. It’s reasonable to see Kingsbury leading Tech to wins over Iowa State and Kansas State at home, and Baylor is a winnable game in Arlington. The Red Raiders will want to have clinched bowl eligibility before the final two weeks of the season, when the team faces off against TCU and Texas. The key to reaching a bowl is cutting down on an average of 43.5 points allowed per game. Nic Shimonek, the presumptive heir to Mahomes, has enough weapons around him even with the transfer of Jonathan Giles to put up plenty of points offensively. If everything goes their way, the Red Raiders are looking at eight wins and at least another year for Kingsbury. Worst Case The Red Raiders worst case for 2016 came true when the team failed to qualify for a bowl before Mahomes left for the NFL. At this point, missing a bowl game again is extremely possible and if Tech is at home during bowl season, it likely means a change is coming at head coach. The offense will not be as explosive as it was with Mahomes leading the way, but just how good can Shimonek be? If he puts up the numbers a lot of people expect him to, the offense will be just fine. But if he doesn’t and the defense doesn’t show at least some improvement, things could get ugly pretty quickly. The Red Raiders could really struggle on the road (Houston, Kansas, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Texas) which would leave the team scratching and clawing for a bowl berth. A stretch of three games in the middle of conference play – at Kansas, at West Virginia, and Iowa State – will go a long way towards determining how the team finishes this season. Failing to win at least two, if not all three, of those games drastically decreases Tech’s shot at a bowl game.

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