Best Case/Worst Case in 2017: Houston Cougars

All of our Best Case/Worst Case scenarios:Texas / Texas A&M / Texas Tech / TCU / Baylor / Houston / UTSA / SMU / UTEP / Rice / North Texas / Texas StateWill this season be a dream or a nightmare for your favorite FBS program in the state of Texas? In this series, we take a look at the best and worst case scenarios for all 12 teams.Houston 2016 record: 9-4Best Case When Tom Herman took over the Cougars as a first-year head coach in 2015, he led the Cougars to a 13-1 record and a win over Florida State in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. A lot of that success came because of the play of Greg Ward Jr., who accounted for 3,941 total yards and 38 touchdowns. With Herman gone to Texas and Greg Ward Jr. off to the NFL, first-year head coach Major Applewhite will have to rely on a big numbers from a new starting quarterback if the Cougars are going to stay relevant. Best-case scenario, Kyle Allen immediately returns to the level of play we saw during his days at Texas A&M. Allen appears to be the successor to Ward, and he brings some experience to the table that most quarterbacks in the American Athletic Conference don’t have. Allen spent 2014 and 2015 in the SEC before deciding to transfer. He was the No. 1 QB in the country coming out of high school and most recently threw for 2,210 yards and 17 touchdowns as a sophomore in 2015. He brings a big time arm to the table and quickly combines with WR Linell Bonner (1,118 yards, 3 TDs) to put up big numbers in the passing game, which will take some pressure off Duke Catalon on the ground. The Cougars are able to overcome some depth concerns on the offensive line, relying on the return of a strong group of starters headlined by center Will Noble to lead the way. When it comes to the defense, Ed Oliver (66 tackles, 23 TFL, 5 sacks) has an even better sophomore season to hold things together up front and cements himself as one of the best defensive players in all of college football. Matt Adams continues his progression at linebacker while the secondary steps up to force some more turnovers in the passing game. Things go Houston’s way early in the season, and the team sneaks into AAC play with a 4-0 record. The Cougars get Memphis, Navy and SMU at home, which takes some of the potency out of the conference schedule. With Allen leading the way, Houston works its way into the AAC championship game picture. Finishing right around 10 wins, the Cougars don’t miss a beat in year one under Applewhite. Worst Case Things could go south quickly if Houston overlooks a talented UTSA squad in the opener on Sept. 2. The game is in San Antonio and UTSA is a much better team at home. A loss in this game sets the tone for a tough transitional year, as Allen stumbles out of the gate. The running game struggles to move the ball consistency, which puts even more pressure on Allen in his return to the field. The Cougars fall to 2-2 in non-conference play before their struggles continue into the AAC schedule. A second straight loss to SMU is a painful one, and Houston is forced to fight for bowl eligibility down the stretch. But even in a down year, the Cougars manage to find a sixth win and advance into the postseason.

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