Best Case/Worst Case for 2016: Texas State Bobcats

[caption id="attachment_19355" align="alignright" width="350"]Photo by Diana Porter Photo by Diana Porter[/caption] Will this season be a dream or a nightmare for your favorite FBS program in the state of Texas? In this series, we take a look at the best and worst case scenarios for all 12 teams. Texas State 2015 Record: 3-9Best Case The task is tall for new Texas State head coach Everett Withers. The Bobcats are coming off a 3-9 season and the roster isn’t deep enough with talent to compete for a Sun Belt championship. Instead, the best case scenario for Texas State in 2016 is bowl eligibility. The season starts with a game at Ohio. If the Bobcats can pull the upset on the road, a home game against Incarnate Word could bring Texas State to 2-2 entering the conference schedule. Winnable games against Louisiana-Monroe and Idaho bring Texas State’s win total to four. That leaves two games to steal. The quarterback position is talented. Returner Tyler Jones remains the starter on the depth chart. Finding targets for him to rely on will be a challenge, as the Bobcats didn’t return a single player to record an FBS catch. Stedman Mayberry took hold of the starting running back spot, but the offensive line is a question mark, especially if any starters get hurt. Defensively, Texas State has a chance to improve in a 3-4 defense. The secondary is the biggest concern on that side of the ball. If Texas State can seal a victory on the road against New Mexico State, only one upset remains for the Bobcats to become bowl eligible. A home game against Troy in the second-to-last game of the season could determine if Texas State builds momentum with a bowl game or takes another December off. Worst Case It’ll be tough to increase the win total in 2016. Withers inherited a roster with numerous holes. It’ll take more than one offseason to fix the issues in San Marcos and things could get worse before they get better. The quarterback position is in good hands. The rest of the offense is a different story. The Bobcats are inexperienced at running back and wide receiver. The offensive line lacks depth and size. Defensively, the secondary could get torched if the front seven can’t stop the run and create pressure. If Texas State can’t be consistent on offense or create turnovers on defense, a two or three-win season is more than possible. A loss to start the season against Ohio likely means Texas State enters the Incarnate Word game at 0-3 following losses to Arkansas and Houston. A home loss against Incarnate Word would all but ensure a season without bowl eligibility and create early pressure on Withers from the alumni and on the recruiting trail.

———