5A Games to Watch: Down to just four state semifinals, but all worth watching

ByTravis Stewart/Texas Football

RR Stony Point (13-1) vs. Euless Trinity (12-2)
Saturday, 2:00 p.m. at Waco ISD Stadium
Teams that do one thing very well are, more or less, easier for sports writers to manage. It gives us a "hook", so to speak. Something to build and form opinions off of. Stony Point, challenging for a state title for the second year in a row, is not one of those teams. These Tigers are exceptionally well-balanced in almost all facets of the game -- Stony Point runs the ball very well behind the versatile Sam Kelley (128-1,063, 14 TDs rushing), who also can contribute in the return game, and is equally effective in the air, regardless of whether Gus Barrera (93-153-1,553-6, 11 TDs passing) or Aaryn Sharp (54-83-1,018-3, 10 TDs passing) are under center. And split out wide is one of Texas' leading receivers, Gerard Shillow, who's caught 61 passes for 1,329 yards and 11 touchdowns. All four of those kids have made key plays in Stony Point's astounding run to the semis -- the Tigers have now beaten The Woodlands, Garland and Cy Woods (which beat Dallas Skyline) -- that's one of the toughest schedules out of any team in the playoffs. And the defense is equally good -- Stony Point's speed has limited opponents to just 160 points on the season, second-lowest out of any team still playing in the 5A ranks. But all that said, Stony Point is still the underdog in at least one category -- mystique. Euless Trinity has monopolized the term "consistency" since the turn of the decade, and if you're tired of hearing that, the fact is that they've been very good for a reason -- two state titles this decade (both courtesy of wins against Converse Judson) don't just fall out of the sky. Trinity has once again found a central weapon to run the ball with in Terrance Tusan, who took over when Tevin Williams went down with an injury. But equally dangerous is QB Willie Hubbard, who has rushed for more than 800 yards and thrown for nearly 1,500 on the season -- though Trinity is a run-first, run-last team, it does have two pass-catchers with more than 500 yards on the season, and Hubbard has thrown only four picks on 124 attempts this season. But the weakeness could be on defense, believe it or not -- Trinity's other unit is actually in the bottom half of the remaining 5A teams. Part of that is because the offense scores so well and leaves it on the field early and often -- but that's still a crack that Stony Point can exploit -- and to me, that's the difference. Stony Point gets the nod.
Travis Stewart's Prediction: RR Stony Point 31, Euless Trinity 24
Jerry Forrest's Prediction: Pick'em Katy Cinco Ranch (13-1) vs. Austin Westlake (12-2)
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Unlike the first matchup, between two teams that we both expected would be contending for a title, the Cinco Ranch-Westlake showdown is one that we didn't think we'd be seeing at this point in the season. Both have vastly exceeded expectations -- one after losing the bulk of an '08 regional finalist to graduation (Cinco) and the other after changing coaches in the offseason (Westlake). They've actually both gone about it in similar ways -- running the football and defense. Cinco Ranch junior K.C. Nlemchi has epitomized the Cougars' shock-the-nation campaign, rising from a mere mention in the summer magazine to a 2,300+ yard rusher in just the span of a few months. And on the other side of the ball, LB James Radcliffe has evolved into one of the area's best, excelling both in coverage (4 INTs) and rushing the passer (6 sacks). Together, those two spearhead a tough, no-nonsense football team that can match up with almost anyone. Westlake is actually cut from the same cloth -- led by former Odessa Permian coach (and player) Darren Allman, the Chaps have gone from area also-ran to state-wide power in a snap. A lot of that can be chalked up to QB Tanner Price, a Wake Forest pledge who is playing his way into our postseason top ten lists with more than 2,200 passing yards, nearly 1,000 rushing yards and and 22 total touchdowns. But even more important than Price, in my mind, is how sharp the defense has been. It was the MVP of last week's one-sided victory over SA Clark (a game it led 30-0 before halftime), and it has the luxury of seeing a similar team this week in Cinco Ranch. The most impressive thing about Westlake is precision -- Allman brought over the same sort of discipline and work ethic that he used to turn Odessa Permian into a regional finalist last year, and it's really showed. Losing Louie Swope earlier in the season surely hurt, but the Chaps have kept their stride. I think this game is going to be low-scoring -- neither offense should be able to have its way with the opposing defense. And I also think it's going to come down to the fourth quarter -- in the end, I side with Westlake. I think that Chaps defense is going to force a key turnover late in the game and convert it into a back-breaking score. For some reason, that prediction just seems right.
Travis Stewart's Prediction: Austin Westlake 22, Katy Cinco Ranch 19
Jerry Forrest's Prediction: Austin Westlake by 5 Abilene (13-0) vs. Klein (11-3)
Saturday, 2:00 p.m. at Floyd Casey Stadium in Waco
We're hearing an awful lot of talk about this one -- maybe more about this game than any other outside of the Denton Guyer-Longview game, and that includes the state championships this weekend! Part of that is the state-wide interest that Abilene generates whenever it makes a deep playoff run, and part of that is a suddenly surging Klein support system that can't get enough of this best-ever season. But another part of it is the twisted David-Goliath aspect of it. Think about: Wasn't Abilene, which lost in the first round last year and thought to be no more than a regional contender in 2009, supposed to be donning the David slingshot? Just a week ago against Cedar Hill, we were already thinking 2010 thoughts. But that one result changed everything, and now all the sudden it's the Eagles that are getting fitted for the invincible armor. And Klein? Well, the Bearkats didn't listen to anyone, including us. We picked them out of the playoffs early on, and they won anyways. We picked them to lose to John Tyler, and they won 31-7. They clearly have a level of belief in themselves that no one else shared until now. One thing we know for sure in this game is that whoever can establish the run is going to have a profound advantage. Both Klein and Abilene are run-first programs, and while each has at least one secondary ground option (Patrick Johnson for Klein; Ronnell Sims, Tony Curtis for Abilene) there's one clear-cut weapon for each that has scouts and fans drooling alike -- Herschel Sims for Abilene and Dekota Barnes for Klein. Sims (2,100+ yards, 32 TDs rushing; 402 yards, 5 TDs receiving) might be the best back in the state not named Malcolm Brown, and his ever-increasing propensity for epic performances would make Abilene a favorite over almost anyone in Texas. Barnes (1,600+, 16 TDs), on the flip side, is a more bone-crushing runner that serves as the anchor for Klein's Wing-T offense. Sims is an excellent kick returner. Barnes is just as good bringing back punts. The one difference is the passing game -- Abilene isn't exactly an aerial maestro, but it can throw if needed. Klein isn't so fortunate. I think Abilene is going to sell out to stop the run and let the passing game beat it -- something I'm not sure Klein can manage. Still, picking against the Bearkats seems foolish, considering my record there.
Travis Stewart's Prediction: Abilene 29, Klein 21
Jerry Forrest's Prediction: Abilene by 17 Katy (13-1) vs. New Braunfels (11-3)
Saturday, 2:00 p.m. at Rice Stadium in Houston
Today we're going to discuss a rarely mentioned discrepency in high school football -- readiness vs. fatigue. The perfect example is New Braunfels. The way I see it, the Unicorns have now been in playoff mode for about ten weeks -- district 26-5A is so tough, so competitive, that it really started getting close to do-or-die time for NM around Week 5. Add four weeks of playoff football to that, and you've got the most battle-tested team in the state. But couldn't they also be "mentally exhausted"? I've heard it both ways -- usually to fit the predictor's guess. But we're going to find out this weekend, as gritty New Braunfels faces its next tough opponent -- Katy, winner of two straight 5A state titles. The Tigers, as they always seem to be, are well-equipped to handle this foe -- New Braunfels is going to want to runt he ball first and predicate the rest of the offense off that success. But Katy's main strength, maybe above all others, is plugging up the running game. If the Tigers do that, it turns NB quarterback John Simmons, a prolific athlete, into a pass-first kind of guy, and I don't think he particularly wants that. But the best hope for New Braunfels to spring the upset would be to gobble up Katy's own running game -- the Unicorns did just that last week against SA Brandeis, containing Noah Copeland (one of 5A's top rushers) and consistenty turning away the Brandeis offense when it was in prime scoring position. Three times in the regional finals, Brandeis' offense broke into the NB red zone. And all it managed was a field goal. That's the kind of effort NB will need to keep pace with Katy and it's grind-it-out run game. But like I said in the radio show earlier this week, one key could be Katy's QB, Brooks Haack -- just a sophomore, Haack has come in in relief of Michael Stojkovic, who has been a bit up-and-down. Haack has played well, but he's still young, and an early assault from the NB offense could rattle him. I don't know if that's going to be enough to earn a win, but at least it's a place to start.
Travis Stewart's Prediction: Katy 30, New Braunfels 20
Jerry Forrest's Prediction: Katy by 7