4A Games to Watch: All four state semifinals should be close -- even LT's

ByTravis Stewart/Texas Football

Denton Guyer (13-1) vs. Longview (13-1)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. at Dallas' Kincaide Stadium
Depending on how things shake out, this could be the first of two straight rematches for Longview -- seeing Lake Travis in the state finals would be the second, and truthfully, we've fielded more questions about that potential matchup than this current one. Ya' think Longview fans are looking ahead a little bit? But the truth is that Longview is facing a team this weekend that isn't all that different than the Waxahachie one it beat in the regional finals, with one key exception -- it won't have near as many guys playing both ways. Waxahachie looked like it got a bit tired in the second half against the Lobos (somewhat evident by the 31 unanswered points Longview scored), and a big part of that was how most of the main players never left the field. Guyer won't have that problem, and its all-around depth should be a strength. But aside from that, Guyer may have the same problems that Waxahachie did after it jumped out to an early 20-0 lead: slowing the Lobo run game while solidifying its own. Waxahachie's normally potent run game generated just 118 team yards last week and almost averaged less than 3 yards per carry, while Longview churned out more than 300 at 8.5 yards per touch. That's a huge difference. Guyer's efforts are going to start right up front, with the defensive line and DT Taylor Bible, who, in my mind, is the best tackle in the state. But his presence alone hasn't been able to stop everybody; in Guyer's lone loss of the season, against Ryan in Week 10, the Raiders ran the ball effectively, especially in the fourth quarter, and Longview's attack will be far more polished than Ryan's (at least on the ground). If Guyer had one player to key in on, it would help quite a bit. But Lobo runners Aaron Johnson, Tyler McCray and Da'Cedric Hunt are all capable of 100+ yard nights -- that's difficult to contain. On Guyer's end, getting a second-straight career night out of Jaimaine Wilhite, who rushed for nearly 300 yards last week against Ryan, would help considerably. QB J.W. Walsh, who struggled a little bit to throw the ball in the weather last game, will be critical, too. But the real difference will be the defense -- that group gritted out five interceptions of Ryan QB Scotty Young, returning one for a touchdown and grabbing a couple in the endzone to maintain the narrow advantage. Now it has to transition to defending against the run -- filling all the gaps, wrapping up on tackles, etc. Shutting down Ryan last week was impressive -- but this is a another animal altogether. Like Waxahachie, Guyer has a chance to earn a win. But Longview was my pick before the playoffs, and I stand by it.
Travis Stewart's Prediction: Longview 29, Denton Guyer 21
Jerry Forrest's Prediction: Longview by 5 Pearland Dawson (12-2) vs. Lake Travis (14-0)
Saturday, 2:00 p.m. at Kyle Field in College Station
Before we go and hand the third-straight 4A state trophy over to Lake Travis just yet ... there's still a game to be played with Pearland Dawson, which is actually fairly well-equipped to give the Cavaliers trouble. Yes, Lake Travis has now won 45 straight games, one of the longest streaks in state history (Celina, with 68, is No. 1). And yes, the LT offense is becoming the stuff of legend. But that same attack stubbed its toe against both Cibolo Steele and Alamo Heights, and only clutch fourth-quarter play by the defense salvaged wins in both. That seems to be something no one is really talking about -- last year, Lake Travis was rarely (if ever) threatened. But this season, two 27-4A teams came this close to slaying the dynasty with a formula that Dawson has the horses to emulate. First of all, Heights and Steele were both run-first teams -- Dawson, with QB Darian Lazard running all over the place this postseason, is cut from the same cloth. Both were stout defensively. Well, Dawson hasn't always been perfect this year, but the last two weeks it held teams to just 20 points and 11 points, respectively -- that has to count for something. Lastly, both Steele and Heights seemed unfettered by the LT mystique -- the long winning streak really didn't mean much to those two teams, and they both stepped on the field believing they would win (and they almost did). Obviously, that's the X-factor here. I think Dawson is of that mold, but you can't be sure until the game starts. But I do know that the Eagles are going to lean heavily on Lazard, who, like Dayton's Cody Green last season, has easily eclipsed the 2,000-yard passing/1,000-yard rushing mark this season. Yet he's not held in the same regard, for reasons I can't understand. Perhaps it's because so many of his 19 rushing touchdowns have come from short distance, whereas Green dazzled us with long run after long run. Regardless, Lazard is an excellent offensive threat, and more importantly, takes care of the football. Having a jump-ball WR like Marcus Vaughn will help. But Lake Traiv still has the most dangerous player on the field, and it's not under center -- it's RB/WR Andy Erickson, who is a big play waiting to happen on every snap of the ball be it in the receiving game or taking a handoff, he can snap off a long score and change the game in the blink of an eye. I think Dawson can hang with this team, but like Steele and Heights, I think LT makes the key fourth-quarter play that send it to the finals -- again.
Travis Stewart's Prediction: Lake Travis 28, Pearland Dawson 20
Jerry Forrest's Prediction: Lake Travis by 24 Aledo (13-1) vs. Denison (13-1)
Saturday, 2:00 p.m. at Denton's C.H. Collins Athletic Complex
Here's another game that we've been fielding questions on, right and left -- and with good reason, considering both of these teams are exceptionally good and well-balanced. And while both teams have sensational running backs -- Johnathan Gray for Aledo and D.J. Jones for Denison -- we're actually going to talk about the two quarterbacks first, because both have played primary roles in their team's deep playoff runs. Denison's Jordan Taylor has really been astounding recently -- just like Darian Lazard for Pearland Dawson, Taylor is up over the 2,000-yard passing/1,000-yard rushing mark, and his performance against both Sulphur Springs last week and Marshall the week before have him in the running for the 4A Player of the Year award. Bishop isn't all that far off the mark, either -- he doesn't have near the kind of numbers that Taylor does (just 1,713 passing yards and 15 TDs) but he's completing almost 70 percent of his passes and has been a steady hand behind the electric running of Gray, still just a sophomore. But the defenses have also gone fairly unnoticed -- Denison's is nearly below the 20 points per game mark, while Aledo has allowed the second-least of all 4A teams left alive (Lake Travis is first). So who is going to get the better of things? My gut feeling would say Denison, which I picked to go to the state semis at the beginning of the postseason -- our preseason magazine also had them winning the DII state championship. So at least we're pretty consistent. As good as Taylor has been, I still think Jones, a first-team Super Team running back, is the most critical component for a Denison win. Taylor may be playing the best football, but Jones, in my mind, is still the biggest game-breaker -- and big plays are what you're going to need against Aledo. The Bearcat defense is too good to try and complete 16-play drives against. Aledo is in much the same situation -- it needs production out of Bishop and a few big runs from Gray. And it also needs to make sure it keeps up the pressure -- it had Everman dead to rights last week before allowing a massive fourth quarter surge. Denison is too potent offensively to give the same opportunity to. I think Denison is the winner, but this looks like a high-scoring game to me, and one I wish I was going to be at.
Travis Stewart's Prediction: Denison 35, Aledo 34
Jerry Forrest's Prediction: Aledo by 5 Brenham (12-2) vs. Kerrville Tivy (9-4)
Saturday, 1:00 p.m. at Georgetown ISD
Tivy carries the unfortunate distinction of being one of just two teams left in the entire Texas high school playoffs with less than double digit wins (1A Ganado, also 9-4, is the other), but that doesn't mean much more than that the Antlers had a tough schedule to fight through and lost one game to inclement weather. Since the playoffs began, Tivy's offense has been simply sensational -- in their four games, the Antlers have scored 65 points (SA Kennedy), 63 points (Pflugerville Hendrickson), 45 points (Medina Valley) and 38 points (Port Lavaca Calhoun). That's a total of 211 points, more than 73 other 4A teams scored all season. And seven of those teams went to the playoffs! That point production has largely come courtesy of junior QB Johnny Manziel, who has played one of the best postseasons of football in recent memory. That sounds like hyperbole, but look at the numbers. In those four games, he's thrown for 865 yards and 11 touchdowns with no interceptions on a 62 percent completion rate. And on the ground, he's run for 425 yards and 8 touchdowns. Throw in a 39-yard touchdown catch and two games decided on one of his last-second scores ... it's just hard to even understand how good he's been. But if we're going to start comparing amazing exploits, Brenham can answer with some of its own. I can't think of another playoff team that's trailed by double-digits and been shutout at halftime in consecutive weeks and won both games, but that's exactly what the Cubs have managed to do. Two weeks ago against Angleton, Brenham feel behind 21-0 at the halfway point and won, 32-28. Then, the very next week, Dayton had it against the ropes, 17-0, with just two frames to play. Again, Brenham won, 30-24. So no matter who you're rooting for, expect the unexpected, apparently. But Brenham simply can't afford to fall behind a third game in a row -- eventually, things like that catch up with you, and this time it's facing the kind of player that can and will put you away for good if you give him enough rope. But even with the nagging injury to QB Ty Schlottmann, I think the Brenham offense can take care of itself -- after all, the Tivy defense (while excellent against Calhoun in the second half) has been a bit inconsistent. That Brenham defense is what needs to step up. If you can limit Manziel, you can win. But that's like asking the sun to rise in the west -- far easier said than done. I think Brenham can do it just enough to win out -- but don't be surprised if Manziel pulls yet another rabbit out of the hat en route to the state finals.
Travis Stewart's Prediction: Brenham 32, Kerrville Tivy 29
Jerry Forrest's Prediction: Tivy by 3